The Top 10 tech trends for 2012

(CNN) -- From the continuing rise of tablet devices to the daily-deals craze and the return of the Internet IPO, 2011 has been a transformative year for technology.

The pace of change has become blisteringly fast, with traditional industries -- bookstores, video-rental chains, newspapers -- crumbling more quickly than we could have imagined.

Predicting what will happen in 2012, therefore, is a shot in the dark: A year is virtually a lifetime in the digital era. And yet we can at least make a guess at what will happen in the early part of next year simply by looking at the trends that are shaping the latter half of this year.

Here's my best estimate of some of the innovation we'll see in 2012:

Pete Cashmore is the founder and CEO of Mashable.com.

1. Touch computing

New input methods will be the dominant trend of 2012. Tablet computers such as the iPad might seem like a nice alternative to desktop and laptop computers, but I believe they're more than that: They're replacements. Just as the command line (remember that?) gave way to graphical user interfaces, so the mouse will be superseded by touchscreens.

The signs are obvious: Windows 8 and Mac OS X Lion, the latest desktop operating systems, borrow heavy from their mobile counterparts. These new interfaces essentially impose a touchscreen-inspired interface over the traditional desktop environment.

Over time, this half-step will become a whole one, and mobile operating systems will dominate. The transition won't be complete by the end of 2012, but we'll be much further down the path, and using computer mice much less often.

2. Social gestures

In the social media realm, social gestures appear to be the leading trend of 2012. Launched by Facebook in September, this so-called "frictionless sharing" functionality removes the need to click a button to share media with your friends. Instead, everything you listen to, read or watch is automatically posted to your profile once you approve the relevant app.

If you've seen apps such as Spotify or Social Reader in your Facebook news feed, you're already aware of these features.

The trend makes sense for social networks: With 800 million people already on Facebook, its growth is bound to slow. But if sharing becomes automatic, the volume of content on Facebook will grow at an accelerated pace. There's a big problem, however: Users may be "creeped out" by all this automated sharing of their Web activity and grow suspicious of the apps using it.

3. NFC and mobile payments

Google Wallet, Google's mobile-payment system, may become more widespread in 2012.

Next year is likely to be the year when mobile payments blossom. While we've seen a great deal of innovation in mobile payments technology this year -- including the success of Square's iPhone dongle, allowing anyone to accept credit card payments -- 2012 is the year of NFC.

What's that, you ask? Near Field Communication essentially lets you replace your credit cards with your phone: Wave an NFC-enabled phone near the credit card reader in a store (or taxi cab), and the money is deducted from your account.

By 2013, 1 in 5 cellphones are expected to be NFC-equipped. Early contenders include Google Wallet, Visa Wallet, Serve (by American Express) and ISIS.

4. Beyond the iPad

If touch computing is the future, then the iPad is surely king. And yet the iPad came up against serious competition in the latter part of 2011: As I wrote previously, I expect the new Amazon Kindle Fire to outsell the iPad in 2012. Why? Simply put, the iPad costs $499 while the Fire costs $199.

Amazon's advantages don't stop at the price point, however: The company owns an entire content store of movies, e-books, TV shows and other media. With tablet devices, the hardware is somewhat important but the content available for the device is absolutely critical: With plenty of media available for the Fire right away, it's an appealing proposition.

Why does one device constitute an entire trend? Well, as a true competitor to the iPad emerges, content producers, distributors and even app developers may have an entirely new platform on which to push their wares. (And yes, the Kindle Fire does indeed run Google's Android operating system, but Amazon's version is so unlike other Android tablets that neither users nor app developers will perceive it as "yet another Android device" -- it's a whole new platform.)

5. TV Everywhere

So you thought you'd be able to watch all your favorite shows online and get rid of your cable subscription for good? Not so fast!

The cable companies have a cunning plan: They'll let you watch live TV, plus on-demand movies and TV shows, on your connected devices if you keep your cable subscription. Dish Network, Time Warner and Comcast are among those offering the service.

TV Everywhere has been buzzed about since 2010, of course, and could be a dud -- but the rise of tablet devices would seem to create increased demand for a "TV in your hands."

6. Voice control

Here's another trend that's got a moderate chance of taking off in 2012: Voice control.

Siri, the voice-control feature in the iPhone 4S, may spread to other devices.

The novelty of Siri on the iPhone 4S -- which allows you to send texts, create reminders, search the Web and much more using just your voice -- may be the start of a new trend in voice controlled devices.

Surely voice control has been around for years? Yes, but it wasn't very accurate.

Siri and its ilk define a new era in which we talk, and our devices understand -- often on the first attempt. Other device makers will likely follow suit. What's more, Apple may use voice control to replace the TV remote.

7. Spatial gestures

Other input methods are gaining traction too: Microsoft's Kinect, for instance, has given rise to interfaces that use spatial gestures. Just like in "Minority Report," your devices can be controlled simply by waving your hands in the air.

Thanks to the many innovators who have hacked Kinect to work with other platforms, we may see more devices using this input method next year.

8. Second-screen experiences

"Second-screen experiences" is a buzz-phase among TV and movie execs these days. It refers to apps (mainly on the iPad) that listen to the audio output of your TV and display content related to the show or movie you're watching. The chances are that you already use your tablet computer or phone while watching TV, so there's ample opportunity to make the viewing experience a more interactive one.

Disney already has second-screen apps for movies such as "The Lion King" and "Bambi," while multiple TV networks have similar offerings: We can expect many, many more to be released in 2012.

9. Flexible screens

Personally, I just can't wait for flexible screens: These awesome new bendable interfaces will let you zoom in, zoom out and scroll around a page simply by twisting your phone or tablet.

Nokia and Samsung have both hinted they may release phones with bendable displays in 2012. The really exciting stuff, however -- like paper-thin devices that roll up to fit in your pocket -- is still years away.

10. HTML5

Can I squeeze in one more trend? It's HTML5 -- the fifth iteration of the HTML standard -- and it lets developers create richer, more interactive applications than ever.

Why does this matter? As developers tire of building applications for every operating system out there -- from Android to iOS to Windows Phone and beyond -- HTML5 offers the opportunity to build an app once and have it work everywhere.

The rise of HTML5 is bound to be accelerated by a recent revelation: Adobe is killing off Flash for mobile devices, meaning one of the primary methods of serving videos and rich applications on mobile phones is about to disappear. HTML5 will fill that gap. For us as consumers, that means richer applications and experiences on all our devices.

In short, 2012 is all about new ways to interact with our devices through touch and voice control, new lightweight ways to share content, a revolution in mobile payments and a plethora of rich Web applications -- not to mention the hundreds of new innovations that we've yet to dream up. I can't wait.

Story by By Pete Cashmore, Special to CNN, story source: www.cnn.com

US Internet Ad Revenues Rise to Historic $17 Billion in First Half 2012, Up 14% Over Half-Year 2011

Mobile Increases Almost Two-Fold Year-Over-Year

In the first half of 2012, internet advertising revenues climbed to an all-time high of $17 billion, representing a 14 percent increase year-over-year, according to IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report released today by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and prepared by PwC US. This performance is compared to the landmark $14.9 billion reported for the first six months of 2011.

Also marking a 14 percent year-over-year increase, second quarter internet ad revenues for this year hit $8.7 billion, up from $7.7 billion during the same time period in 2011.

Highlights of the report include:

• Mobile generated significant growth – almost doubling year-over-year – up 95 percent to $1.2 billion in half-year 2012 from $636 million in the comparable 2011 period
• Digital video, a component of display-related advertising, saw an increase of 18 percent year-over-year, bringing in a little over $1 billion in revenue in the first two quarters of 2012 compared to nearly $900 million in the first six months of 2011
• Search revenues in the first half of the year totaled $8.1 billion, up 19 percent from nearly $6.8 billion during the same timeframe in 2011
• Display-related advertising revenues in the first half of the year totaled almost $5.6 billion, accounting for 33 percent of 2012 half-year revenues, up 4 percent from $5.3 billion in the first half of 2011
• Retail advertisers constitute the largest category of internet ad spending for the first half of this year, claiming 20 percent of the total revenues at $3.4 billion, while Automotive brought in $2.2 billion for first-half 2012, marking an uptick to 13 percent versus 11 percent of category spend reported for half-year 2011 at $1.7 billion

“This report establishes that marketers increasingly embrace mobile and digital video, as well as the entire panoply of interactive platforms, to reach consumers in innovative and creative ways," said Randall Rothenberg, President and CEO, IAB. “These half-year figures come on the heels of a study from Harvard Business School researchers that points to the ad-supported internet ecosystem as a critical driver of the U.S. economy. Clearly, the digital marketing industry is on a positive trajectory that will propel the entire American business landscape forward.”

“The tremendous growth of mobile advertising revenue over the past year is an indication of the importance of location to advertisers and mobility to consumers,” said David Silverman, a partner at PwC US. “Bringing the power of the internet to mobile devices has opened up a world of possibilities to both consumers and marketers.”

“Solid double-digit growth in a stagnating economy is a significant accomplishment,” said Sherrill Mane, Senior Vice President, Research, Analytics and Measurement, IAB. “There is evidence that CPMs are maintaining, and even increasing, further substantiating the vitality of the internet ad market.”

Story source: www.iab.net

The business of buying social

It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone that the social juggernaut of our time decided to move into eCommerce.

Facebook said earlier this week it would partner up with some retailers, including Victoria’s Secret and Fab.com, to start its online commerce program. Basically, people can press the “want” button on Facebook, share that information with their friends, and then actually buy the products after being directed to the retailer’s website.

It’s no big revelation. Earlier this year a developer unveiled a piece of code suggesting Facebook would be doing exactly this, and analysts have seen it coming from a mile away.

(Also, as an aside, it takes more than a few hints from Pinterest, which should be a nice validation for the “other” social network.)

Of course, the move doesn’t just represent an attempt on Facebook’s part to boost its revenue and arrest a falling share price. It also signals a change in how businesses should think about social commerce.

Last week, Forrester released some research showing only 1% of online sales could be attributed to social media.

That’s a very low number. Now, it excludes small business, which would probably see a higher amount of sales, and it also excluded some important variables. But 1% is still a very low number.

Local expert Sam Yip, from research house Telsyte, made a point that contradicted the survey – social networking leads to sales, but not necessarily in a direct way. It builds brand awareness that eventually feeds its way through to your bottom line.

It’s an excellent point, but the main thought here is that social networking doesn’t necessarily convert sales in a direct way.

Facebook’s decision may change that. If you can create a system where people buy products through social networking, then it will lead to more sales, depending on your strategy.

Right now, Facebook’s program is restricted to a few retailers, and it won’t be opening up to small business any time soon, but it makes a key point – managing your ROI on social media is something that will only become more important, not less.

How you do that is up to you, but if you’ve built a prominent social media presence, then you need to start experimenting with sales. Using social media to refer certain products, or offer discounts, isn’t a bad idea if you can determine just how much traffic you’re getting through your Facebook or Twitter presence.

Even asking a question like, “How did you find this product?” at the end of a transaction can give you some key insight.

Facebook’s announcement doesn’t mean much for SMEs – at least, not right now. But it does show that social commerce is going to transform business and there’s no reason why you shouldn’t get a head-start.

You can follow Patrick Stafford on Twitter @pdstafford. Story by Patrick Stafford, story source: www.smartcompany.com.au

Vest lets Facebook users hug from afar

A vest developed in Massachusetts Institute of Technology lets Facebook users hug one another no matter how far apart they are.

A Like-A-Hug vest on display on Friday at the website of designer Melissa Kit Chow was touted as "wearable social media" that inflates to embrace wearers whenever Facebook friends "Like" items they post at the social network.

Chow worked with Andy Payne and Phil Seaton in the MIT Media Lab to create the puffy black vests, according to her website.

Like-A-Hug lets hugs "be given via Facebook, bringing us closer together despite physical distance", Chow said in a post describing the vest.

And, provided the sender is also wearing Like-A-Hug, a recipient can return a hug by squeezing their own vest to deflate it.

Chow described herself as a graduate of the Harvard Graduate School of Design who subtly skews everyday interactions with the environment for "a reawakening of a sensorial spacial experience".

Story Source: www.ninemsn.com.au

PM's Facebook discussion turns nasty

A Facebook QA with Prime Minister Julia Gillard has attracted sexist and hateful comments, with her office having to censor the comments.

Ms Gillard took to the social networking site on Monday to talk about her education policies.

But the discourse turned ugly, with one man calling the prime minister a slut.

Another man asked how her father was. John Gillard died last month.

'Get my dinner ready' posted another man, while one asked if her 'pubes' were as 'radiant, shiny and glorious' as his own.

A number of other Facebook users labelled her the worst prime minister and criticised her voice, with one saying her voice and demeanour were like nails on a blackboard.

Others jumped to Ms Gillard's defence, one posting that 'nothing any of these sexest (sic), Hateful, disrespectful, unaustralian idiots can get to you!'

'You are an inspiration to Australians and the world,' said another.

And another: 'Keep up the great work running the nation Julia! You have quite rightly earned the respect you deserve.'

Ms Gillard has an official Facebook fan page, which is maintained by her office.

A spokeswoman for Ms Gillard said the site was moderated to remove offensive comments and, like all Facebook sites, comments could only be removed after they had been posted.

'A handful of comments after the session were offensive and have been removed,' the spokeswoman said in a statement.

The question and answer session was the first of its kind by a senior politician in Australia.

While in Tasmania last week, Ms Gillard took part in a live question and answer session for a news website, with no levelling of offensive remarks.

Story source: www.bigpond.com

Facebook private message rumour is 'false', site says

 

A rumour that Facebook users' private messages were appearing on public timelines is false, the firm has said.

Some users, mostly in France, reported that "private messages" sent between 2007-2009 were suddenly public.

However, Facebook told the BBC: "[The] messages were older wall posts that had always been visible on the users' profile pages.

Separately, Facebook shares fell up to 11% after an influential journal said the stock is worth just $15.

On the messaging rumour, the social network said: "Facebook is satisfied that there has been no breach of user privacy."

Another source at the company told the BBC that engineers said there was "no way" the two areas of data could get mixed up.

Private material

The source said that "no mechanism" had ever been created that would allow a private message to be published onto a user's wall or timeline.

Similar rumours surfaced and were investigated in 2011, the source said, but after "extensive investigation" they were proven to be untrue.

Despite Facebook's statement, many users reported finding what they believed to be old private material.

"There are messages I've got on my wall that are most definitely private messages! From 2006 all the way up to 2012," wrote Poppy Dinsey, owner of fashion social network What I Wore Today.

"I'm 100% sure by content and from memory. And also some posts on my wall were clearly beginnings of (private) group [messages]."

Meanwhile, Facebook shares were under pressure after the US financial publication Barron's said the stock is worth perhaps only $15 a share, well below the $38-a-share flotation price.

On Wall Street, the shares ended down 9.1% to $20.79, having fallen more than 11% earlier in the day.

Barron's said: "Facebook's 40% plunge from its initial public offering price of $38 in May has millions of investors asking a single question: Is the stock a buy?

"The short answer is 'No.' What are the shares worth? Perhaps only $15," Barron's said.

Story source: www.bbc.com

QR Codes Most-Used Mobile Channel For Engaging Customers

1 in 2 company marketers say they are using QR codes to encourage their customers to interact with their brand, per results [download page] from an Econsultancy survey released in June 2012, in partnership with Responsys. QR code usage by these respondents surpasses other mobile channels, including creation of applications (35%), mobile commerce (29%) and mobile optimized emails (29%). Roughly one-quarter are using SMS marketing, while less than 1 in 5 are employing location-based marketing. Just 7% have turned to MMS and 2% to NFC.

Agencies show some different patterns with regards to their clients. 54% say their clients use apps to encourage their customers to interact with their brands, while 49% indicate their clients use QR codes. Agencies are more likely than companies to report client use of mobile optimized emails, SMS, and location-based marketing.

According to a Multichannel Merchant survey also released in June, merchants are integrating QR codes into their marketing strategies at a far greater rate this year than last. 47% of respondents this year said they are using QR codes, a dramatic increase from just 8% a year ago.

Search Most Popular Ad Type

Data from Econsultancy’s “Cross-Channel Marketing Report 2012″ indicates that mobile search marketing is the most popular type of mobile advertising used by company marketers, at 35% of respondents, followed by push notifications (29%).

A plurality of agencies also say their clients are engaged in mobile search marketing (42%). Mobile display advertising (banner) is cited by 41% of agencies, compared to one-quarter of companies, with agencies also more likely to indicate their clients’ use of advertising on apps (37% vs. 22%), location-based targeting (30% vs. 22%), and mobile display advertising using video (19% vs. 12%).

Various studies have highlighted the growth of mobile’s share of search marketing budgets of late, with IgnitionOne most recently reporting mobile paid search spend growing 333% year-over-year in Q2, to reach 14% of total US paid search budgets.

Display Ad Engagement Sentiment Mixed

Respondents to the Econsultancy survey do not paint a clear picture when it comes to engagement rates with display advertising via smartphones as opposed to via PCs. Among company respondents, 33% feel that customers are more engaged with display advertising on smartphones than on PCs, while 40% say they are less engaged. Among agencies, 35% feel that engagement is higher on smartphones, compared to 33% who feel that it is lower.

Other Findings:

• 1 in 5 company marketers say they personalize mobile display advertising based on location, while 28% of agencies report their clients’ use of this targeting method.
• Roughly one-quarter of companies are using offline advertising to promote engagement on mobile devices, and a further 17% are planning to do so. Agencies indicate slightly higher levels of offline ad use by their clients: 35% say their clients are using offline advertising to promote engagement on mobiles, and an additional 20% say their clients are planning to do so. According to Google survey results released in February, two-thirds of US smartphone users who say they at least rarely notice advertising have used their device to run a search in response to an ad they have seen offline.