Wireless a threat to NBN, government's own consultant warns

WIRELESS internet technologies present a major threat to Labor's $35.9 billion national broadband network, a government-appointed consultant has warned.

An assessment of the NBN Co's corporate plan by Greenhill Caliburn said the project's revenue assumptions "appear to be in line with a range of domestic and international benchmarks".

But the success of the network would rely heavily on the network's ability to achieve wide-scale usage.

The consultant said attractive pricing and strong competition between services providers should drive user uptake of the network.

"Key risks to NBN Co's uptake assumptions relate to competition from alternative technologies," the report said.

"Trends towards 'mobile centric' broadband networks could also have significant long-term implications for NBN Co's fibre offerings."

User uptake and retention, average revenue per user and management of building costs are identified as three key variables in the corporate plan.

The assessment, released by the government today, warned assumptions underpinning the NBN Co's corporate plan depended on the company's deal with Telstra being finalised.

The passage of government legislation allowing the rollout of overhead cables, mandating fibre at greenfields sites and delivering regulatory protection to NBN Co from competition in commercially attractive areas - as set out in the corporate plan - would also determine the success of the project.

Communications Minister Stephen Conroy said Greenhill Caliburn's report confirmed NBN Co's key assumptions underlying revenue and cost projections.

"As with any infrastructure project, there are always risks, contingencies and external factors and the government will work closely with NBN Co to put in place agreed performance indicators to track its performance and adjust strategies or operations as needed," he said.

The consultancy stressed it had not conducted an in-depth analysis of the company's future funding requirement.

In a rebuff to predictions that NBN Co would struggle to obtain funding, the report said NBN Co was likely to obtain debt funding at planned levels.

Labor has consistently refused to conduct a thorough cost-benefit analysis on the NBN project.

Story by James Massola www.theaustralian.com.au

Overposting Drives Away Facebook Fans

The most-frequently cited reason Facebook users give for “unliking” a brand is that it posts too frequently, according to [pdf] a new report from Exact Target and CoTweet. Data from “The Social Break-up” indicates 44% of Facebook users list this as a top reason for unliking a brand they once liked on Facebook.

 

irtually tying overposting as a top reason for unliking a brand on Facebook is having an overcrowded wall (43%, more than one answer permitted). Other leading reasons include content becoming boring and/or repetitive (38%), and only liking a company to take advantage of a one-time offer (26%).

Unliking Top Negative Reaction

Report data indicates brands will often know when a Facebook fan changes their mind, as 43% of Facebook users will unlike a brand when they no longer want to see its posts. Another 38% click the “X” in their news feed so they don’t see the brand’s posts and 19% do nothing but ignore the posts.

More than Half of Facebook Users Have Changed Mind after Liking Brand

Fifty-five percent of Facebook users have liked a company and then decided they no longer wanted to see its posts. In addition, 51% say they rarely or never visit a brand once they have liked it. A full 71% of fans say they have become more selective about what brands they like.

Unliking Not the End of the World

Report data show that a consumer’s decision to “unlike” a company has surprisingly little impact on the perceived likelihood that they will buy from that company in the future. In total, 63% of consumers said they were as likely or more likely to purchase something from a company after ending their Facebook relationship. Another 18% said they only “unlike” a company if they never bought anything in the first place.

3/4 of Online Consumers Have Facebook Account

Almost three in four (73%) online US consumers have opened a Facebook account. Sixty-five percent are active Facebook users, and 42% are fans. The fan percentage rises to 64% among Facebook users.

comScore: Facebook Leads Top Website Engagement

Facebook represents the largest share of time spent by US internet users of the top five most-visited websites, according to a new white paper from comScore. “The 2010 US Digital Year in Review” indicates that Facebook increased its share of total US internet time 71% between December 2009 (7.2%) and December 2010 (12.3%).

Twitter privacy dispute for WikiLeaks

Three people associated with the website WikiLeaks are asking a US judge not to force the social networking site Twitter to turn over data about whom they communicate with online.

In court documents unsealed on Tuesday, the three challenged a court order forcing Twitter to tell the government the names of those they talk to privately and who follow their posts. Lawyers argued that violated their freedom of speech.

The documents capture the heart of the WikiLeaks debate because the United States is investigating whether WikiLeaks should be held responsible for leaking classified information, even though it was not the original leaker.

Defence lawyers say it is a question of political discussion, arguing that Twitter communication about WikiLeaks is protected speech.

'The First Amendment guarantees their right to speak up and freely associate with even unpopular people and cause,' lawyers wrote.

The documents were filed by a member of Iceland's parliament and a former WikiLeaks activist, Birgitta Jonsdottir, as well as two computer programmers, Rop Gonggrijp and Jacob Appelbaum.

Source: www.bigpond.com

Social Network Ad Revenues Rising Worldwide

Social network advertising increasing share of online advertising

Thanks to Facebook, social networks are steadily increasing their share of total online ad spending in the US.

In 2011, 10.8% of all US online ad spending will go to social networks. Next year, the share of spending going toward social destinations is expected to rise to 12.1%.

“Major marketers are integrating social media into their overall marketing programs,” said Debra Aho Williamson, eMarketer principal analyst and author of the new report “Worldwide Social Network Ad Spending: 2011 Outlook.” “As they do so, advertising in social destinations is becoming a more logical part of their plan.”

On a worldwide basis, social networks are also increasing their representation. Of the nearly $69 billion marketers will spend on online advertising worldwide in 2011, 8.7% will land on social networks, rising to 10.2% of $79 billion in 2012.

By 2012, markets outside the US will account for more than half of social network ad spending. This shift will come as Facebook increases its global footprint and improves monetization in developing markets. Homegrown social networks in Russia, China and Japan—where Facebook has not yet penetrated—will also continue to see growth in usage and ad spending.

In addition, in some countries, such as Japan and China, mobile is the predominant way to access social networks. As mobile advertising becomes more sophisticated, eMarketer expects more ads to funnel into mobile versions of social networks.

“The skepticism of a few years ago has faded; large brands are allocating more marketing budget to social media than ever before, and their social network ad spending is also rising,” said Williamson. “Two categories of advertisers are emerging: major brand marketers that increase budgets gradually, and performance advertisers that spend heavily and bring extensive search marketing expertise.”

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The Impact of Cookie Deletion on Website Audience Measurement in Australia

comScore a leader in measuring the digital world, today released its white paper, The Impact of Cookie Deletion on Site-Server and Ad-Server Metrics in Australia: An Empirical comScore Study.

The study addresses the key sources of discrepancy between server-based and panel-based data and reveals that cookie deletion can lead to large overstatements in servers’ measurement of the size of online audiences. Without appropriate adjustments, site-server measurement of the size of website audiences in Australia can be inflated by up to 2.7 times the actual number of unique visitors.

The report revealed the following key findings for the Australian market:

• Approximately 28 percent of Internet users in Australia delete their first-party cookies in a month. Third-party cookie percentages are even higher, with nearly 37 percent of Internet users deleting their third-party cookies in a month.
• “Serial cookie deleters” have a profound impact on inflating site-server logs because they represent a small percentage of computers, but a very large share of observed cookies.
• Because of the high rate of cookie deletion, a server-centric measurement system which uses cookies to measure the size of a site’s visitor base will typically overstate the true number of unique visitors by a factor of up to 2.7x in Australia.
• Similarly, the study found that an ad-server system which uses cookies to track the reach and frequency of an online campaign will overstate reach by a factor of up to 5.7x and understate frequency to the same degree.
• Comparing cookie deletion in Australia with other markets across the globe including the U.S., U.K., Brazil, France, Germany and New Zealand found that each country saw third-party cookies being deleted by approximately 30-40 percent of Internet users, with first-party cookies deletion in excess of 20 percent in each country. Australia fell in the middle of the distribution among the included markets for both first-party and third-party cookie deletion percentages.

To download the full report, The Impact of Cookie Deletion on Site-Server and Ad-Server Metrics in Australia: An Empirical comScore Study, please visit: http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Presentations_Whitepapers/2011/The_Impact_of_Cookie_Deletion_on_Site-Server_and_Ad-Server_Metrics_in_Australia_An_Empirical_comScore_Study

CFOs Have Stagnant Financial Expectations

CFOs of large North American companies lowered their sales and earnings expectations in Q4 2010, according to a new study from Deloitte. The Deloitte CFO Signals quarterly survey for Q4 2010 indicates that after two quarters of rising expectations, CFOs now project lower year-over-year sales gains of 6.5% (down 40% from 11% in Q3 2010) and earnings gains of 12% (also down 405, from 20% the last quarter). Deloitte data indicates variability of expectations is high. Median sales growth is just 5%, and median earnings growth is just 8%. However, all surveyed industries are projecting sales improvements.

Benefit Costs Seen Exceeding 5% Growth

Built into CFO earnings expectations are cost projections that are fairly consistent with those from the previous two quarters. CFO expectations for employee benefits cost increases have been rising in each of the last three quarters, outpacing the other cost categories and surpassing 5% during Q4 2010.

Many CFOs Expect Flat Dividends, Spending

CFOs are expecting dividends to rise 4%, down more than 50% from 8.5% during Q3 2010, but Deloitte analysis reveals nearly three-quarters are predicting flat dividends. Energy/resources is the outlier, projecting nearly 11% dividend growth.

Capital spending is expected to rise 8.5% (up from 8% last quarter), but the median expectation is just 4%, with more than 40% of CFOs anticipating flat spending or cuts. All sectors expect increases on the whole, but healthcare/pharma expects only 1%.

Research and development spending, a new metric for this quarter, is expected to rise 4%, with technology and healthcare/pharma companies higher at roughly 7.5%.

Domestic Hiring Growth Seen Slow

Domestic hiring growth expectations of 1.8% for Q4 2010 are slightly below those from the third quarter, and the median expectation is just 1%. On the plus side, no industries are projecting decreases, and energy/resources is projecting increases of 4.5%.

The outlook for offshore and outsourced employment is better with an expected 3.6% increase in offshore personnel (2.8% the previous quarter) and a 2.8% increase in outsourced staffing (1% during Q3 2010). Technology companies expect increases in both offshore and outsourced hiring of nearly 7.5% (and no increases in domestic hiring).

Hiring Challenges Remain

Despite high and persisting unemployment, almost half of the CFOs say their companies are finding it more difficult to acquire sufficiently-skilled people than they did five years ago and 32% indicate no change. Roughly half of CFOs citing difficulties blame changes in staffing needs, and the other half say their regular staffing profiles are getting harder to find. Energy/resources CFOs indicate the highest difficulty filling open positions with nearly 65% citing hiring concerns.

Only 21% of CFOs are finding it less difficult to acquire skilled talent -half because their staffing needs are changing and half because their regular staffing profiles are getting easier to find. More than one-third of retail/wholesale CFOs say hiring is getting easier because their staffing needs are changing; one fifth of technology CFOs agree. Financial services CFOs are unique in answering that their regular staffing profiles are getting easier to find (28% make this claim). If you remove the effects of financial services, only 6% of CFOs are saying their regular staffing profiles are getting easier to find.

Despite the common perception that manufacturing layoffs have created a glut of manufacturing staff, only 5% of manufacturing CFOs say their regular staffing profiles are getting easier to find (roughly one quarter say their regular staffing profiles are getting harder to find).

North American CFOs Remain Optimistic

CFOs of large North American companies were more likely to be optimistic than pessimistic in Q4 2010, although job stresses have reduced CFO optimism since Q2 2010, according to other study results. The Deloitte CFO Signals quarterly survey for Q4 2010 indicates that overall, 53% of surveyed CFOs at North America’s largest companies are more optimistic than they were in the previous quarter.

Android Conquers World

Google Android has become the leading global smartphone platform, according to new data from Canalys. Shipments of Android-based smart phones during Q4 2010 reached 32.9 million (32.6% share), while devices running Nokia’s Symbian platform trailed almost 6% at 31 million (30.6% share) worldwide.

Apple iPhone came in a distant third with 16.2 million devices running the iPhone platform shipping globally in Q4 2010, trailing Android by more than 50% with 16% share. In total 101.2 million smartphones shipped worldwide during Q4 2010, an almost 89% jump from 53.7 million in Q4 2009.

Google Smartphone Volume Grows 615% YOY

In terms of smartphone volume growth rate, shipments of Google smartphones, including the OMS and Tapas platform variants as well as Android, grew 615% between Q4 2009 and Q4 2010, from 4.7 million to 33.3 million.

Apple iPhone had the second-highest year-over-year volume growth rate of 85.9%, from 8.7 million to 16.2 million. RIM, which came in fourth overall, had the third-highest year-over-year volume rate of 36%, from 10.7 million to 14.6 million. Nokia Symbian slightly trailed with 305 growth, from 23.9 million to 31 million.

Microsoft Loses Volume

Microsoft was the only smartphone platform vendor individually examined by Canalys to post negative volume growth between Q4 2009 and Q4 2010. Microsoft lost 20.3% of its global smartphone shipment volume, dropping from 3.9 million to 3.1 million.

US Smartphone Market More than Doubles China

Canalys data indicates the US continued its reign as the largest country market in terms of shipments, at more than double the size of the Chinese smart phone market. RIM recaptured first place from Apple, as the latter experienced its usual US seasonal dip, and RIM benefited from the first full quarter of shipments for the BlackBerry Torch. HTC successfully maintained its third-place ranking in the US for the third consecutive quarter, driven by its speed to market with the latest Android updates and new Windows Phone 7 devices.

EMEA Largest Regional Market

At a regional level, Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) remained the largest market, with shipments totalling 38.8 million (about 38% of total shipments) and a year-on-year growth rate of 90%. Nokia continued to lead in EMEA and Asia Pacific, but in 2010 it was overtaken by RIM in Latin America, which shipped more than a million more units than Nokia in Q4 2010. Canalys analysis shows the vendor was particularly helped by the popularity of its mid-range smart phones, such as its Curve family of devices.

Mobile Mix: Android Passes iOS

Android surpassed iOS as the most popular US smartphone platform for the first time in December 2010, according to the latest Mobile Mix report from Millennial Media. Mobile Mix data indicates 46% of smartphones running on the Millennial network used the Android platform, while 32% used iOS. The only other smartphone platform with a substantial share was RIM (16%).

In addition, six in 10 mobile devices on the Millennial network in December 2010 were smartphones, another 30% were feature phones and 10% were connected devices.